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HUMAN POPULATION

Thursday, April 25, 2019
The scientific study of human population is referred to as demography. It covers its growth, density, distribution and movement as well as the aspect of economic and social development.
The term “population” can be defined in a number of ways, depending on the context in which it is used.
In ecology, a population refers to all the organisms of the same group or species that live in a particular geographical area, and have the capability of interbreeding.
In statistics, population refers to the set of individuals, items, or data from which a statistical sample is taken.
In astronomy, the term population means either of two main groups of stars classified according to age and location.
So you can see that the term changes according to the circumstance in which it is used and meant for.
The word population comes from Latin word populus, meaning people. Human population refers to the total number of people inhabiting or occupying a specific unit or geographical area at a given time. The unit area can be a house, village, region, country, continent or the whole world.
The Characteristics of Human Population
Describe characteristics of human population
When scientists engaged in the study of human population (demographers) think about population dynamics, they consider five major characteristics. These characteristics include population size, population composition, population structure, population density, and population distribution.
Size
Population size is the actual number of individuals in a population in a particular time. For instance, according to 2012 census, the total number of people in Tanzania was found to be 44,928,923. This was the population size of Tanzania by that time (Table 3.1).
Table 3.1 Tanzania population by region, (2012 census)
Density
For humans, population density is the number of people per unit of area, usually quoted per square kilometre (which may include or exclude, for example, areas of water or glaciers). Commonly this may be calculated for a county, city, country, another territory or the entire world. For example, in 2012 the total population of Tanzania was 44,928,923. Given that her area is 945087 km2 (including 12,000 km2 of inland water), then the population density of Tanzania at that time was 48 people per square kilometre.
Composition
The distribution of the population according to the characteristics such as age, sex, marital status, socio-economic status (class, religion, language, occupation, etc.) and so on is called population composition. It is the main pillar of the population studies. The study of population composition helps us to find out the structure of the population of a country.
1. Population composition by age
The age composition of population means the composition of population of a certain age group in a certain place or region. The age of population can be classified corresponding to the age composition. Generally, people between the age groups of 15-64 are known as economically active population whereas people below 15 and above 64 are known as economically dependent population.
People under 15 years of age are regarded as children and dependent on their parents for all their needs. Similarly, persons over the age of 65 years are regarded too old to engage in active production.
The dependency ratio is given by the following formula:
The study of composition of population helps us to know the schooling groups of children, economically active people and dependent population over 65 years of age.
2. Population composition by sex
If the population is classified according to sex, it is called population composition by sex. If the population of a place is counted by male and female, the sex population composition can be found out. This type of population is also useful in calculating human sex ratio. Sex ratio is the ratio of males to females in a given population. It is a measure expressed generally as the number of males per 100 females.
If
  • sex ratio > 100, there are more males than females.
  • sex ratio < 100, there are more females than males.
  • sex ratio = 100, there are equal numbers of both sexes.
If the sex ratio is more than 100, it implies that there is a great number of males than females. This situation is likely to occur in urban areas, especially where there is a large number of industries which employ more males than females. This is where a large number of male workers and job seekers are found. A small sex ratio has a great effect on fertility.
Where the sex ratio is less than 100, few women would have husbands. This is likely to be the effect of rural-urban migration where many men leave the countryside for urban centres in search of jobs.
The factors that affect sex ratio are:
  • the difference in death rates between males and females;
  • the differences in net migration by gender (as elaborated above); and
  • the sex ratio of newborn infants.
Normally the sex ratio changes as age progresses (see Figures 3.1 and 3.2 below).
Structure
The population structure for an area shows the number of males and females within different age groups in the population. Looking at the population structure of a place shows how the population is divided up between males and females of different age groups.
Population structure is usually shown using a population pyramid. A population pyramid can be drawn up for any area, from a whole continent or country to an individual town, city or village.
The following graphs show the population pyramids of a more economically developed country (MEDC) and a less economically developed country (LEDC) for 2000. The left side of each pyramid shows the number of men in each age group, the right side shows the number of women in each age group.

Fig 3.1 Population pyramid for the UK 2000
Notice how in the UK 2000 pyramid there is a bulge in the area of the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups, with the numbers thereafter reducing fairly steadily as the ages increase.
Now compare the UK population pyramid with that for Mozambique:

Fig 3.2 Population pyramid for Mozambique 2000
In this graph, we notice that in 2000 the 0-4 age group contained the largest number of people, with the numbers thereafter declining steadily as the ages increase.
Key things to know about population pyramids:
  • The shape of a population pyramid can tell us a lot about an area's population.
  • It gives us information about birth and death rates as well as life expectancy.
  • A population pyramid tells us how many dependants there are. There are two groups of dependants; young dependants (aged below 15) and elderly dependants (aged over 65).
  • Dependants rely upon the economically active people for economic support.
  • Many LEDCs have a high number of young dependants, whilst many MEDCs have a growing number of elderly dependants.

The Importance of Studying Population

Explain the importance of studying population
With the majority of developing countries facing population explosion, the study of population and its problems has become very important in every sphere of an economy. The study of human population, especially with respect to statistical data, is called demography. Importances of demography include the following:
  1. The study of demography is of immense importance to an economy. Population studies help us to know how far the growth rate of the economy is keeping pace with the growth rate of population. If population is increasing at a faster rate, the pace of development of the economy will be slow. The government can undertake appropriate measures to control the growth of population and to accelerate the development of the economy.Rapid population growth reduces per capita income, lowers the standard of living, leads to unemployment and under employment, brings environmental damage and puts a burden on existing social infrastructure. Population studies highlight these problems of the economy to be solved by the government.
  2. Population studies are important for the society. When population is increasing rapidly, shortages of social services like water, electricity, transport and communications, public health, education, etc. arise.Along with these, problems of migration and urbanisation are associated with the growing population which further lead to law and order problem. Faced with such problems which are the associated result of population growth, the state and non-governmental organisations can adopt appropriate measures to solve them.For example, by knowing the number of children in each age group, the government will have an idea about how many school chances will be needed each year and how many extra teachers need to be trained. Also, by knowing the total number of people in the country and in each region, the government can plan in advance for the provision of healthcare and security. For example, in 2012 the ratio of physician density (physician per 1,000 people) in Tanzania was reported at 0.031. This means 31,000 people per physician (doctor). In practice, the ratio shows that there is need to train more doctors to attend the ever-increasing population.
  3. Data relating to the present trend in population growth help the planners in formulating policies for the economic plan of the country. Population data are also used by the planners to project future trends in fertility and to formulate policy measures to control the birth rate.
  4. Population studies are also useful for administrators who run the government. In under-developed countries, almost all social and economic problems are associated with the growth of population. The administrators have to tackle and find solutions to the problems arising from the growth of population.
  5. When the size of population is increasing, the demand for housing is also increasing. Therefore data collected about fertility, mortality, migration, urbanization and family formation gives basis for the estimation of housing planning.
  6. The knowledge of demography is of immense importance for a democratic political system. It is on the basis of the census figures pertaining to different areas that the demarcation of constituencies is done by the electoral commission. The addition to the number of voters after each election helps to find out how many have migrated from other places and regions of the country.Political parties are able to find out from the census data the number of male and female voters, their level of education, their age structure, their level of earning, etc. On this basis, political parties can raise issues and promise solutions in their election manifestos at the time of elections.Furthermore, it is on the basis of male and female voters in an area that the election commission establishes election booths for voters and appoints the election staff.

Population Distribution

Population distribution refers to the way people are spread out on land. People do not occupy or inhabit all the land. This is due to unfavourable conditions such as steep slopes, bare rock surfaces, aridity, extreme temperatures, water bodies, dense vegetation, and disease vectors, among others. This explains why some places have many people while others have few or none.
Population distribution can be described as uneven when people appear to be spread out uniformly all over the area or uneven where some places have many people while others have few people.
Places which are sparsely populated contain few people while places which are densely populated contain many people. Sparsely populated places tend to be difficult places to live. These are usually places with hostile environments e.g. most parts of central Tanzania which covers Singida, Dodoma and some parts of Tabora regions. Places which are densely populated have habitable environments e.g. the southern highlands, consisting of Mbeya and Iringa regions.
In terms of density, the distribution can be described as dense where a high number of people live in one place. If the number is very high, the distribution is described as very dense. Where people appear to be many but not to the extent of being described as dense, the distribution can be described as moderate.
Factors Governing Human Population Distribution
Describe factors governing human population distribution
The distribution of population in the surface of the earth is not uniform due to many factors. These factors can be classified into four main groups, namely physical, historical, economical and political factors.
PHYSICAL FACTORS
Physical factors that affect population distribution include relief, climate, soils, vegetation, drainage, pests and diseases and water bodies.
Relief
High altitude in general is not suitable for human settlement due to extremely low temperatures, reduced atmospheric pressure and low oxygen content. Therefore, very few permanent settlements can be seen in the high mountains at a height above 5,000 metres. The vertical distribution of population on the slopes of high mountains like Mount Kilimanjaro has shown that both numbers and densities decline with increasing altitude.
Most crops do not grow well beyond an attitude of 2500 m. However, some communities choose to live in the mountain areas for security reasons.
Rugged and undulating topography restricts human settlements in any area because of the difficulty of erecting buildings in such areas. Construction of roads, railways and other transportation infrastructures is also difficult. Crop cultivation is difficult because of soil erosion, soil creep, and landslides.
Human settlement is usually confined to the areas marked with gentle and relatively flat topography. Such areas are normally highly populated because of the easiness of setting up settlements and transportation infrastructures, and undertaking farming activities. The East African plateau is densely populated because of a flat terrain, high rainfall and favourable climate. However, places that are extremely flat are sparsely populated because of poor drainage and possibility of water logging and frequent floods.
When it comes to aspect, sun-facing slopes provide favourable locations for the emergence and growth of settlements. This is particularly true in the temperate and other high latitude areas where insolation is very important.
Climate
Of all the physical influences on population distribution, climatic conditions are perhaps the most important. Climate affects population distribution both directly as well as indirectly through its effects on soil, vegetation and agriculture.
Temperature and rainfall are the two main influential climatic elements that play a significant role in human population distribution. Though people have a tendency to adapt to moderate variations in temperature, they are highly affected by extreme temperatures. In the Northern Hemisphere, extreme cold conditions in the high latitude areas have prevented human habitation. Likewise, extremely high temperature and aridity in the hot deserts, and arid and semi-arid areas of the world restrict human habitability. These areas do not support agriculture and they have few water sources. That is why most deserts and arid regions are sparsely populated.
Rainfall and humidity certainly limit the concentration of population in any part of the Earth. Places receiving rainfall of over 1000 mm are densely populated.
Soils
The quality of soils has a great influence on the distribution of world population. The fertile alluvial and deltaic soils can support dense populations. Thus, most of the major concentrations of populations in the world are located in the river valleys and deltas where people engage in farming.
On the other hand, the soils which are very poor in terms of fertility can support only a small population because they are agriculturally unproductive.
Vegetation
Dense forests are sparsely populated. It is difficult to develop transport and communication infrastructures in such areas. They are also habitats for wild animals which may be dangerous to humans, livestock and crops. Areas such as Miombo woodlands of Tanzania are infested with tsetse flies which are a threat to people and livestock. This has discouraged settlement in such areas.
Drainage
Well drained areas attract settlement and hence have high populations. Swampy places and areas with seasonal swamps are normally uninhabited. Such places do not attract settlement or farming. People avoid settling in areas that are prone to flooding.
Swampy areas and those that drain poorly are often avoided because of the difficulties in erecting buildings. Worse still, swamps are breeding grounds for mosquitoes which spread malaria.
Pests and diseases
Areas infested with pests and diseases are sparsely populated. Pests harbour and/or carry disease germs. For examples, mosquitoes and tsetse flies are common pests in the tropics and areas infested with these pests have very few people living there. Apart from the nuisance they cause to humans and livestock through biting, tsetse flies spread trypanosomes that cause nagana to livestock and sleeping sickness to humans, and mosquitoes spread malaria.
Water bodies
Availability of water plays a significant role in determining the population of a given area. Water is the basic necessity for several purposes including use for irrigation and transport, and in industries and homes. Rivers are the greatest source of fresh potable water. Therefore, most of the population is concentrated in the river valleys.
ECONOMIC FACTORS
Population distribution and density in an area depends to a large extent on the type and scale of economic activities. Location of mineral and energy resources has led to dense population concentration in many parts of the world, which otherwise do not provide suitable conditions for human habitation. Large towns have grown up in inaccessible and extremely inhospitable areas such as deserts, polar regions or in the midst of forests where precious minerals and metals have been found.
Mining centres, no matter how remote they may be in a country, always attract a large population. For example, diamond mining in Mwadui in Tanzania has led to population growth, which has kept increasing since the mine was established in 1940 by Dr. John Williamson, a Canadian geologist. Economic activities resulting from exploitation of natural resources like minerals attract a large population of job-seekers and service providers.
Trade activities influence an area to be highly populated. For example, people move and settle near established transport routes such as roads and railways.
The establishment of towns and industries attract human settlements for similar reasons as mining. This accounts for the large population in the major towns of East Africa.
Human population is usually low in areas with few or no industries, or trade opportunities.
HISTORICAL FACTORS
Historical events may also be responsible for low population densities in some areas. In the 18th Century, many parts of the East, Central and West Africa were affected by slave trade. Strong young men and women were captured and sold as slaves to work in farms in the West Indies and America. Some were taken as slaves to the Arab world. Meanwhile, other people ran away to avoid being captured and never returned to their homeland. This reduced population in the deserted areas.
During the colonial period, European settlers forced the indigenous people to move from fertile lands where they established commercial farming. The indigenous inhabitants were sent to African reserves where they settled. Thus, the European farmlands became sparsely populated while the reserves experienced a high population density. The population distribution situation has remained almost the same hitherto.
POLITICAL FACTORS
Political unrest, such as civil wars, in many parts of the world has caused migration from certain areas. Wars have forced a great number of people to migrate from one region to another all over the world. Between 1971 and 1979 many Ugandans ran away from their homeland to other parts of the country or into neighbouring countries to avoid political persecution during the reign of dictator Idi Amin. Many people from Southern Sudan and Somalia have sought refugee status in Kenya in recent years because of political instability in their respective countries.
Tribal conflicts and war have led to some places becoming sparsely populated as people seeking safety shift from war-torn places
Some government programmes may require the removal of people from certain areas in order to settle them in new areas, for example, during the construction of large dams or roads. This cause formerly inhabited areas to become sparsely populated while new settlements experience an increase in population.
National parks and forest reserves are areas that are controlled by the government. Human occupation of such areas is therefore prohibited. These areas are sparsely populated with the only people living there being workers and, in some isolated cases, illegal squatters.
During the more recent times, government policies have emerged as an important determinant of population patterns. With increasing state control over economic activities, government policies have led to a significant change in the patterns of population distribution in several parts of the world.
In Tanzania, for example, villagilisation policy of 1974 forced people to relocated to Ujamaa villages where they accessed social services like education, healthcare and security, among other services on communal basis. As a result, rural population was concentrated in villages where the population got higher while the other sparsely populated rural land was reserved for farming.
SOCIAL FACTORS
Availability of social services such as education, transport and healthcare which are normally abundant in urban areas, determines population distribution. People tend to live in places with ease access to these services than areas with less or no social services. Areas with adequate services are normally highly populated while those with poor or less services have a low population density. That is why urban areas are densely populated while rural areas are sparsely populated.

Population Change

Define Population Change
Human population is never stable. It keeps on changing from time to time. Population change refers to change in the number of people in a given geographical location during a specific time period. It is the rate at which the population is increasing or decreasing at a given time.
Population change can also be described as population growth. This is the increase (positive growth) or decrease (negative growth) in the number of people over a specified period of time.
Factors which Influence Population Change
Explain factors which influence population change
The three main factors that cause population change are birth rate, death rate and migration. These factors influence population growth positively or negatively. Let us talk about each of these in detail.
Birth rate
The birth rate is the total number of live births per 1,000 of a population in a year. A high birth rate coupled with a low death rate results in a positive change in population. This translates into an increase in population. A high birth rate is caused by high fertility and fecundity within a population.
Fertility or total fertility is defined as the ability to conceive or to induce conception. Fecundity refers to the ability to produce offspring frequently and in large numbers, i.e., high fertility. Fertility rate is expressed as a ratio of live births in a geographical area to the total population of that area.
For example, according to the United Nations estimates for 1995-2000, the total fertility for Tanzania was 5.5 children per woman aged between 15 and 49 years. This is the average number of children that a woman of a child-bearing age will have in her life time if she were to survive from birth through the end of her reproductive life. The factors influencing fertility include the level of education of the women, urbanization, career prospects and birth control measures.
The reasons for high fertility rates in Sub-Saharan Africa include early marriages, desire for large families (children provide old age security and serve as workforce), prevalent child mortality (parents are not sure of their children survival), knowledge of family planning methods (including the benefits, costs and effects of contraceptives), and access to quality family planning services.
The Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
The crude birth rate is the estimated rate of births in a year. It is not a precise figure because the values for the total population that are used for the calculation are an estimate of the total population by the middle of the year.
CBR is obtained by dividing the total number of the births recorded in the year by the estimated total population by the mid year and multiplying the fraction by 1,000.
Tanzania’s crude birth rate during the period 1995-2000 was 40.2 annual live births per 1,000 persons.
This rate is most often used when looking at fertility, though the crude measure does not account for important variations in population fertility such as sex ratios, age distributions, postponement or acceleration of marriage age, all of which can alter the way that the crude rate should be interpreted.
Death rate
This factor is sometimes expressed as mortality and it refers to the number of deaths that occur in a given population. There are three types of death rates.
(a) Infant mortality rate
Infant mortality rate is the number of deaths of infants under one year in a given year per 1,000 live births in the same year. This rate is often used as an indicator of the level of health in a country.
(b) Child mortality rate
Child mortality rate is the number of deaths of children aged between 1 and 5 years per 1,000 live births in a year.
Adult mortality rate
Adult mortality rate refers to refers to the number of adults dying per 1,000 of the total population in a year. Mortality is significant in that it results in reduction of population numbers. It also affects the population structure.
A high death rate of a particular gender or age has a negative bearing on population growth. Large-scale mortality may be caused by an outbreak of war, famine, disease epidemic or natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
The deaths of a large number of youths and men who are of child-bearing age reduce the number of people active in child-bearing.
The Crude Death Rate (CDR)
The crude death rate is an estimated rate of deaths against an estimated total population by the middle of the year in question. This is usually calculated by looking at the number of deaths per 1,000 individuals.
Tanzania’s crude death rate during 1995-2000 was 12.9 annual deaths per 1,000 persons.
The reasons why the term “Crude” is used is because other characteristics such as age, sex and composition within a population are ignored.
Births and deaths are natural causes of population change. The difference between the birth rate and the death rate of a country or geographical region is called the natural increase or natural population growth. The natural increase is calculated by subtracting the death rate from the birth rate.
The rate of natural increase is given as a percentage, calculated by dividing the natural increase by 10. For example, if the birth rate is 14 per 1,000 people, and the death rate is 8 per 1000 people, then the natural increase = 14-8/10 = 6/10, which is equal to 0.6 per cent.
This ratio is derived from the formula for calculating the natural population growth or natural increase which is given by:
From the 2002 population census conducted in Tanzania, the annual growth rate was found to be 2.9% for the period between 1988 and 2002 (i.e. intercensal period).
Just like birth rate, the death rate in a country depends on things such as availability of quality medical care, disease, war, or famine.
Migration
One important factor that accounts for a change in population is migration. At the broadest level, migration refers to movement; it is the movement of people from place or region to another which result in change of residence. It may be temporary or permanently. Migration may involve immigration where people come into a new area. Those people are referred to as immigrants.
Migration may also involve emigration where people leave their native land for another land. These people are called emigrants. Migration across a country’s border is called international migration and migration within a country’s border is called internal migration. Migrations influences population change in both areas (origin and destination) which are affected positively or negatively.
Emigration of a large number of people from their native land results in reduction of population. In Africa, an exodus of people from their native countries has largely been attributed to civil wars. Large numbers of refugees flock neighbouring countries resulting in an increase in population in the host countries. Tanzania has been a host to many refugees from Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo and even Somalia.
Migration of these refugees has resulted in a decrease in population in their native countries and an increase in population in host countries. Some of the refugees may even opt to stay permanently in their host countries and some even change their citizenship. The populations of refugees also grow through children born among them within the host countries. All these result in a positive change in population.
Crude net migration rate
This rate illustrates the change in the population as it is affected by people moving in and out of a country or other specified location. To calculate this rate, one would need to know both the number of people that immigrated to (moved into) a country or the designated district/sub-national area and the number of people that emigrated from (moved out of) a country or the designated district/sub-national area. Then the crude net migration rate can be calculated using the following formula:
Crude net migration rate = I – E / P × 1,000
where:
  • I is the number of immigrants or in-migrants;
  • E is the number of emigrants or out-migrants; and
  • P is the total midyear population of the country or designated area.
Example:
In 2002, a central African nation had 8,320 immigrants and 7249 emigrants, according to their international arrivals and departure statistics. The total population (June 2002) was estimated as 1,258,000. The NMR is (8,320-7249)/1258000 × 1000 = 0.85
Types of migration
There two types of migration, that is, internal migration and external (international) migration. Both of these processes impact population change. The forms of migration can be permanent, temporary, voluntary or involuntary.
Internal migration
This is a movement of people within a country. It can be temporary or long-term. It may be voluntary or forced. This type of migration goes on all the time and many governments do not attempt to control it.
The reasons for this type of migration are varied. They include searching of jobs, settlement, seeking safer areas, or improvement of people’s lives. There are four forms of internal migration.
Rural to urban migration: In this form, people move from rural to urban areas. People migrate in search of jobs, better social amenities or education, among other reasons.
Rural to rural migration: In this form, people move from one rural area to another. Some people move into plantations to seek for employment. Yet there are those who move into new settlements to undertake farming. Nomadic pastoralists migrate in search of water and pasture for their animals.
Urban to rural migration: Some migrants who moved to towns in search of jobs move back to rural areas to settle because they now have capital to invest in the rural areas.
Urban to urban migration: This involves migrants who may move from one town to another. This could be due to seeking of better employment or business opportunities.
However, it's important to note that internal migration does not change the country’s overall population or the number of people alive at a given time. It simply changes the number of people in a given place.
External migration
External migration is also known as international, interstate or inter-regional migration. It is the movement of people from their own countries to other countries. The people involved are referred to as emigrants in their original countries and as immigrants in their destination countries.
Migration may be voluntary as in the case where people go for further studies, employment or settlement or it may be forced as in the case of refugees.
This migration can be temporary or permanent. For example, international tourists are temporary migrants.
External migration can decrease a country's population size. For example, if you live in Tanzania and emigrate to Kenya, you are decreasing the population of Tanzania but increasing the population of Kenya, because you immigrated there.
Causes of migration
People do not move from one place to another without a reason. There are several reasons as to why people migrate which include the following:
Where there are too many people but a little land for settlement, farming or carrying out other economic activities, people opt to move to another area where there is plenty of land. For example, people from Kilimanjaro and Arusha regions are found almost in every region to which they have migrated permanently in search of land for settlement or farming, or undertaking other economic enterprises. This is because the land in their original regions is so scarce to cater for all their economic needs.
2. Availability of employment opportunities
People usually move from one place to another in search of employment. Such places include those with manufacturing industries, plantations or mineral deposits (mines) where they are employed either as permanent or temporary labourers. This is the main reason for rural-urban migration where people from the countryside move to urban areas to seek for employment.
3. Creation of wealth
Some people decide to move from their place of origin to areas where there is a possibility of creating wealth and improving their incomes. For example, many Tanzanian doctors and other professionals have for a long time been moving to Botswana to see for well-paid jobs.
4. Religious conflicts
Sometimes there may occur religious misunderstanding between religions, forcing followers of a certain religion to move to elsewhere for safety. They move to places where they can practise worship without any interference.
5. Political persecution
Political persecution is the systematic mistreatment of an individual or group by another individual or group for political reasons. Some people move to other countries to avoid political persecution. Quite a number of victims from African countries have migrated to Europe or America to seek for a more peaceful place to live in.
6. Wars
Wars will cause death of the innocent, and most people will try their best to escape from war. People are forced by wars to move to other countries or peaceful areas to live in. A good number of refugees from Burundi, DRC and Rwanda often move from their countries to seek refuge in Tanzania following persistent civil wars in their countries.
7. Natural calamities
Natural calamities such as diseases, floods and drought may cause people to migrate to safer areas. Annual floods and earthquakes in Asia cause regular displacement of people. Likewise, volcanic eruptions force people to leave their homes temporarily until the situation gets calm.
8. Government polices
Sometimes the government may force people to move away from their settled areas in order to give room for establishment of development projects. These include large-scale infrastructure projects such as dams, roads, ports, airports; urban clearance initiatives; mining and deforestation; and the introduction of conservation parks/reserves and biosphere projects. When this happens, people are compensated for their properties and then relocated to another land.
The Effects of Population Change to an Individual and the Nation
Analyse the effects of population change to an individual and the nation
The effects of population change are quite varied. Population change affects both the individuals as well as the nation at large. The effects can be positive or negative.
Effects to the individual
A high fertility rate results in a large number of children that a family has to look after. Parents are overwhelmed by the large family they have to bring up, especially if they are not wealthy. This can lead to poor health to children because of failure to provide their basic needs. Mothers, who bear children at short intervals, may become physically weak and faced with frequent ill-health.
Migration has its own effects on individuals in the number of ways:
  1. Some individuals may change their life styles by becoming more sophisticated. This happens after gaining more skills and exposure to more sophisticated lifestyles where the individual migrated to.
  2. Some individuals after migrating to urban areas and getting jobs may take a much longer time to get married.
  3. When spouses are separated for long periods of time, this may lead to break up of marriages. Either spouse may engage in extra-marital relationships during the period of absence of the partner.
  4. Some individuals who migrate to urban areas lose their cultural values and this lead to immorality. Some may resort to participating in criminal activities.
  5. Some people save a lot of money from the income they get from working and the income is used to improve their standards of living.
Effects of population change to a nation
In developing countries like Tanzania, population change leads to increased poverty. This is because these countries are lagging behind in technological advancement in areas such as agriculture and industries because of the insufficient capital as well as poor management of resources. As technological advancement continues, population pressure may cease.
Increased birth rate and decreased death rate lead to positive population growth. However, if the birth rate is very high, it leads to overpopulation.
Overpopulation is a situation where people in a particular country are too many in relation to the available resources. It is also a situation whereby the population of a country is above the optimum population. This situation will force people to compete for the available resources and due to shortage of resources; there will be general decline in the standard of living. Overpopulation has both negative and positive effects.
Positive effects of overpopulation
  1. Defence: A large population makes it possible to mobilize enough people to defend the integrity of the country in times of war or during any other emergencies.
  2. Increase in labour market: Increasing population ensures increase in the labour force. Lack of growth in the labour force will make a country static and retarded economically.
  3. Large market: Investors would like to invest in a country with a large population. As the population continues to grow, so will be the growth in demand for food, shelter, clothing etc.
Negative effects of overpopulation
  1. Poverty: As a result of overpopulation, the available resources would not be able to support the population and this will result to abject poverty in the country.
  2. Unemployment: A fast growth in population means a large number of persons coming to the labour market for whom it may not be possible to provide employment. Consequently, the number of people looking for job outruns available resources. In fact, in underdeveloped countries, the number of job seekers is expanding so fast that despite all efforts towards planned development, it has not been possible to provide employment to all. Unemployment, underemployment and disguised employment are common features in these countries. The rapidly rising population makes it almost impossible for economically backward countries, like Tanzania, to solve their problem of unemployment.
  3. Social problems: Overpopulation brings about social problems such as bribery, prostitution, armed robbery, etc.
  4. A decrease in the standard of living: Overpopulation leads to a fall in the standard of living. As a result of increased number of people, demand for essential commodities becomes highly competitive and it is those that are rich that would be able to afford them, thereby bringing a fall in the standard of living.
  5. Poor housing and healthcare: Overpopulation leads to poor housing and inadequate health facilities because demand for these facilities is far greater than the supply.
  6. Shortage of food: A large population increases the demand for food. This demand reduces the production of cash crops while increasing production of food crops. And because the population is expanding while the arable land used for food production remains constant, eventually a food shortage arises.
  7. Increase in government expenses: The government will always strive to provide all the necessary social services to the whole population. Though the government has to spend a lot on providing basic facilities like education, housing and medical aid, rapid increase in population make the burden heavier. Thus, overpopulation would lead to increased government expenses on education, healthcare, housing, water supply, and all other social services.
  8. Adverse effect on environment: Due overpopulation, a large number of people are being pushed in ecologically sensitive areas such as hill sides and tropical forests. This leads to the cutting of forests for cultivation resulting to several environmental changes.
  9. Declining trend of agricultural development: Agricultural resources are underutilized because of shortage of land and traditional land tenure systems which hinder modernization of agriculture. Also there is slow industrial growth because of shortage of skilled labour. Although there is a large labour force, it is largely unskilled.
  10. Slow modernization: Most overpopulated, developing nations have a population that is largely traditional. The bias of traditional attitudes slows down modern development as many people stick to the traditional customs and ways of life.
Underpopulation has also got positive and negative effects to a nation. Underpopulation is a situation whereby the size of the population is small in relation to available resources of the country. Underpopulation can also be defined as a situation whereby there are too few people to develop fully the economic potential of an area or country.
Causes of underpopulation include the following:
  1. An increase in death rate: Natural Catastrophes such as earthquakes, flood etc. will lead to an increase in death rate. Therefore, the country witnesses a reduction in human population.
  2. A fall in birth rate: When a country decides to reduce the number of children for fear of eventual overpopulation or any socio-political factor which does not favour children, the country becomes underpopulated.
  3. High level of emigration: A persistent increase in emigration over immigration leads to a reduction in a country’s population.
Positive effects of underpopulation
  1. No congestion: A country with less population experiences little or no congestion because of low population density.
  2. Abundant employment opportunities: As a result of small size of the population, there will be enough job opportunities for the people.
  3. Increased social and infrastructural facilities: An underpopulated country experiences a higher per capita in terms of social and infrastructural facilities available to the people in the country.
  4. Availability of idle resources: The fact that a country is less populated means that the resources available in that country are higher than the number of people; hence, many idle resources would abound everywhere.
Negative effects of under population
  1. Lower standard of living: Underpopulation leads to lower standard of living as a result of inadequate labour force that would have conveniently boost output and production of goods and services.
  2. Lack of adequate manpower: Underpopulation results to shortage of labour with that effect of low investments and income. Inadequate labour leads to slow industrial growth. When skilled labour is imported, then the cost of production and hence the produced goods and services, goes up.
  3. Underutilization of resources: Resources are highly underutilized in a country with low population. A country cannot fully develop its resources when it is underpopulated. Agriculture is not fully developed and minerals may remain unexploited because of shortage of local labour.
  4. Inadequate market: A small population means a narrow market for the locally produced goods and services. Such a population does not support large-scale production of goods and services even when the standard of living is very high.
  5. High transportation costs: When the population is small and scattered over a wide area, vehicles have to travel long distances to reach individuals. This makes transportation of goods and services expensive, a fact which hampers internal trade.
  6. Lack of people to defend the country: At times of war and emergency, a country might find it difficult to mobilize enough people to defend it.
  7. Low creativity: Underpopulation causes lack of pressure on the available resources. This hinders creativity because of limited competition.


Population Data

Population data refers to information on population or the information pertaining to population. This correlates directly with some economic, social and demographic matters.
Sources of Population Data
Explain the sources of population data
Sources of population data
There are two basic sources of population data. These are primary sources and secondary sources.
1. Primary sources
These are sources of population from which data is obtained directly via registration of persons like registration of births and deaths. Data are also obtained first-hand when there is population census and when sample surveys are conducted. A limited amount of data could also be obtained from resourceful persons.
2. Secondary sources
Secondary sources of population data include reports in population which are compiled and published as census reports. Data is also obtained from textbooks and other reference books, atlases, magazines, newspapers, journals, periodicals and research papers.

Interpretation of Population Data

Interpret population data
When population data has been collected, it is subjected to processing or analysis. It is during this process that calculations are made. Calculations on data include means, densities, birth and death rates, sex ratios and other relevant information. Population statistics can be studied in their raw form or in a processed form. By studying such information, conclusion can be made and explanation sought. This is part of data interpretation.
Demographers use the data from censuses and registration of persons to get valuable information concerning human population. Consider the population pyramid extracted from Tanzania census of 2012.

Fig 3.3 Population pyramid (Tanzania census, 2012)
The data presented in the pyramid above show that the percentage population aged 0-14 is higher compared to the population aged 65 years or above. What does this tell us? The data imply that there is a high dependency ratio. According to 2012 census, the dependency ratio was 93.57. This figure shot to 93.80 in 2015.
The data also tell us about life expectancy. Life expectancy refers to the average number of years a person is expected to live. The pyramid indicates that very few people live beyond 64 years. According to the latest WHO data published in 2015 life expectancy in Tanzania is: male 59.9, female 63.8 and total life expectancy is 61.8. Excess mortality due to diseases such as HIV/AIDS, malaria and heart diseases is the main reason for low life expectancy.
Worldwide, the average life expectancy at birth was 71.5 years (68 years and 4 months for males and 72 years and 8 months for females) over the period 2010–2015 according to United Nations World Population Prospects 2015 Revision, or 69 years (67 years for males and 71.1 years for females) for 2016 according to The World Factbook. According to the 2015 World Health Organization (WHO) data, women on average live longer than men in all major regions and in all individual countries except for Mali and Swaziland.
Figure 3.4 compares the population for Tanzania with that typical of developed countries. The figure is a superimposed population pyramid of the United Republic of Tanzania against Most Developed Countries (MDCs). The shape of MDCs’ pyramid indicates a population that is growing at a much slower rate than that of Tanzania. It also indicates a low dependency ratio and high life expectancy compared to values for Tanzania.

Fig 3.4 Superimposed population pyramid (5-year age groups) of developed countries against Tanzania –2012 census
The proportion of young population (0-14 years) of the total population is an indicator of the “youngness” of the population. Figure 3.5 shows that Tanzania’s population is characterized by a young age structure, with 43.9 percent of the total population below age 15 years. The percentage of population below 15 years of age for Tanzania is slightly above the average for African countries (41 percent).
The proportion of population below 15 years of age declined slightly from 45.8 percent in 1988 Census to 43.9 percent in 2012 Census. This marginal decline indicates a slow pace of fertility decline in the country during the intercensal period.

Figure 3.5 Percentage distribution of young population, Tanzania 1988, 2002 and 2012 censuses
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The Uses of Population Data
Explain the uses of population data
The population data is used in a number of ways. The following are some uses of population data.
  1. Total population and population density enable the government to plan on how to allocate resources. Also the knowledge of population can be useful in solving land congestion problem. Knowledge about the country’s population and its growth can be used as a wake up call for the government to allocate funds for public utilities such as schools, housing, water supply, hospitals and even transport and communication systems.Information on birth rates gives a clue on population increase which alerts the government to use contraceptive methods to curb the population in case the rate is too high or use fertility drugs to enhance fertility where the birth rate is expected to drop down.Likewise, increased infant mortality awakes the government to take deliberate actions to improve child nutrition and healthcare facilities.
  2. Data on birth and death rates as well as fertility and mortality enable government to plan how to provide medical services and health education, especially where the death rate is very high.
  3. Data on migration can enable the government to plan how to curb influx of people into urban areas from the rural regions. If corrective measures are taken, loss of man power in the rural areas would be curbed as well as reducing influx of immigrants into urban centres. Data about migration of professionals to other countries in search of better remuneration will enable the country check the ‘brain drain’ by improving remuneration and working environments and terms.
  4. Knowing the number of dependents enable the government to plan for expansion of schools, medical and other social amenities to take care of a large number of children below the age of 15. When the government has ideas about the number of the aged, it can budget for provision of adequate services to the aged.
  5. Knowing the proportion of the working population would enable planning for creation of jobs. Population census data provide information about overpopulation and underpopulation. This enables the government to plan in advance to control the problems expected to arise from the two.

Population Problems

In this context, population problems refer to the problems associated with high population growth rate leading to overpopulation. Though underpopulation can also be considered a problem, to some extent, overpopulation problems are most pronounced.
Analysis of Population Problems
Analyse population problems
Rapid human population growth has a number of consequences. It is unfortunate that population grows fastest in the world's poorest countries despite the fact that the resources in these countries are not sufficient to sustain the ever-increasing human population. High fertility rates have historically been strongly correlated with poverty and high childhood mortality rates. Falling fertility rates are generally associated with improved standards of living, increased life expectancy, and lowered infant mortality. Overpopulation and poverty have long been associated with increased death and disease.
The Effects of the Population Change on Economic Growth, Labour, Human Needs and Investment, and Suggest Possible Solutions
Analyse the effects of the population change on economic growth, labour, human needs and investment, and suggest possible solutions
Population problems arising from birth rates, deaths rates and migration have an impact on economic growth, labour, human need and investment. For example, if the population increases very rapidly it results to availability of labour which is cheap but people with low incomes. Investment in consumer goods will increase as the result of increasing demand for goods and services to cater for needs of the entire population.
In general, the effects of the population change on economic growth, labour, human needs and investment include the following:
  1. Depletion of natural resources: Problems associated with overpopulation include the increased demand for resources such as fresh water, fossil fuels, land and food. These finite resources are consumed faster than their rate of regeneration. Eventually, the resources will get used up altogether.
  2. Poverty: High population leads to low per capita income and hence abject poverty. The consequences of poverty are many. They include increase in the number of beggars and street children especially in urban areas, starvation and malnutrition, and deterioration in living conditions. Poor people lack access to enough land and income to meet basic needs. A lack of basic needs results in physical weakness and poor health. Poor health decreases the ability of the poor to work and put them deeper into poverty.
  3. Environmental degradation: Many environmental problems, such as rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, global warming, and pollution, are aggravated by the population expansion. The overuse of coal, oil and natural gas, has started producing some serious effects on our environment. Rise in the number of vehicles and industries have badly affected the quality of air. Rise in amount of carbon dioxide gas emissions leads to global warming. Melting of polar ice caps, changing climate patterns, and rise in sea level are few of the consequences that we might have to face due to environmental pollution.
  4. Conflicts and wars: Overpopulation in developing countries puts a major strain on the resources they should be utilizing for development. Conflicts over water are becoming a source of tension between countries, which could result in wars. The best example is the recent conflict over the ownership of Lake Nyasa between Tanzania and Malawi where Tanzania insists that the boundary is in the centre of the lake while Malawi demands to be the owner of the entire lake.
  5. Increased health and disease problems: People tightly packed into unsanitary housing are highly vulnerable to diseases and health problems. Tuberculosis and enteric diseases like typhoid, dysentery and cholera are very prevalent in congested settlements. Poor housing and settlements result from overpopulation, in which case the rapid increase in population leads to a high demand for housing which does not match the provision of better housing facilities.
  6. Rise in unemployment: When a country becomes overpopulated, it gives rise to unemployment as there are fewer jobs to support a large number of people. Rise in unemployment gives rise to crime as people will steal various items to feed their family and provide them with basic amenities of life or they engage in other unlawful activities such as drug trafficking, prostitution and robbery.
  7. High cost of living: As the difference between demand and supply continues to expand due to overpopulation, it raises the prices of various commodities including food, shelter and healthcare. This means that people have to pay more to survive and feed their families.
  8. Inadequate social services: Population increase leads to inadequacy of social amenities and services such as healthcare and education as the limited services available cannot sufficiently support the ever-growing population. Underpopulation is also a population problem with many consequences. The following are some problems associated with underpopulation:
  9. In many industrialized countries, population problems include the increasing number of the aged people due to high life expectancy in these countries. There is also a shortage of labour because of few young people. This is mainly because of serious birth control measures taken to control rapid population growth.
Possible solutions to population problems
In order to reduce the adverse impacts of overpopulation, lessening measures, such as spreading awareness and education about overpopulation, enacting birth control measures and regulations, and providing universal access to birth control devices and family planning, must be taken. Possible solutions to population problems include the following:
  1. Better education: Educating the masses helps them understand the need to have one or two children at the most. Families that are facing a hard life and choose to have four or five children should be discouraged.
  2. Family planning: As population of this world is growing at a rapid pace, raising awareness among people regarding family planning and letting them know about serious effects of overpopulation can help curb population growth. One of the best ways is to let them know about various safe sex techniques and contraceptives methods available to avoid any unwanted pregnancies.
  3. Tax benefits or allowances: Governments of various countries might have to come with various policies related to tax exemptions to curb overpopulation. One of them might be to waive certain part of income tax or lowering rates of income tax for those married couples who have single or two children. As we humans are more inclined towards money, this may produce some positive results.
  4. Knowledge of sex education: Imparting sex education to young kids at elementary level should be a must. Most parents feel shy in discussing such things with their kids, a fact which results in their children going out and look out for such information on internet or discuss it with their peers. Mostly, the information is incomplete which results in sexually active teenagers unaware of contraceptives and embarrassed to seek information about the same. It is therefore important for parents and teachers to shed their old inhibitions and make their kids or students aware of solid sex education.
  5. Improvement of rural environment: To check the influx of rural people into urban areas in search of a better welfare, deliberate efforts should be taken to improve the rural set-ups. These include provision of agricultural inputs to farmers on subside basis, improvement of rural access roads, and provision of basic economic services and amenities.
  6. Environmental conservation: Governments should take measures to minimize the environmental degradation. Such measures may include encouraging people to plant trees and apply proper cultural practices.
  7. Creating employment opportunities: Governments should create job opportunities through establishment of industries, encouraging investors in various economic sectors, providing soft loans, and offering entrepreneurship education which will prepare the people for self-employment rather than depending on salaried jobs, among other measures.

Population Policy
Explain the meaning of population policy
The main goal of development is to increase human welfare, and population policies are one way of achieving that goal. A population policy is a set of measures taken by the government to modify the way its population is changing. The measures taken may include either promoting large families or immigration to increase its size, or encouraging limitation of births to decrease it. A population policy may also aim at modifying the distribution of the population over the country by encouraging migration or by displacing populations.
The ultimate goal of the population policy is to influence population size, composition, distribution and growth. The policy also tends to take into consideration the relationship between population and development as well as the impact of population on the environment.
Characteristics of population policy
The following are characteristics of population policy:
1. Selectivity
Population policies are selective as they cover only a section or some sections of the demographic factors where the regulation is intended. For instance, a policy may be put in place to regulate fertility, mortality or migration or a mixture of these.
2. Explicity
Explicit policies are associated with the stated intention of a nation or government to influence population events. The stipulation in explicit population policies are clear and to the point. Explicit policies can stem from the law, policy declaration by a party or directive issued by the president of the country. Explicit laws are well stipulated and strictly followed or reinforced. Such policies prevailed in China where the limit in the number of children was set and incentives were given to all those who could follow while penalties were imposed to those who did not follow. Other countries with explicit policy are Sweden and England. Hence the explicit policy is the elaborate statement that spells out the underlying objective, goals, targets, policy program and implementation.
3. Implicity
Implicit policies refer to a particular law, regulation or statement, which may have direct or indirect effect on population growth. Implicit policy is not as elaborate as explicit since it is somehow unclear and cannot be easily understood leading to failure in terms of implementation.
Implicit policies are unstated, sometimes because the objective is universally acceptable, such as lowering mortality; or because publicising the policy may cause political controversy For instance, a government may give financial support for family planning at MCH (Maternal and Child Health) clinics, but if family planning is controversial, the maternal and child health services of the clinics may be emphasised in the government’s public statements.
Population policies, whether explicit or implicit, have the ultimate aim of influencing a country’s population size, composition, distribution and growth.
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Comparison of the National Population Policy on Family Planning Strategies in Tanzania to the Population Policies of other Countries
Compare the national population policy on family planning strategies in Tanzania to the population policies of other countries
Tanzania population policy
Tanzania adopted a National Population Policy (NPP) in 1992. The policy recognizes that there is no simple cause and effect relationship between population growth and economic growth, and that population growth may not be the primary obstacle to development.
Prior to the adoption of the explicit national population policy in 1992, Tanzania pursued implicit population policies and programmes. These policies and programmes were reflected in actions taken by the government in dealing with various issues pertaining to population. These included policies and programmes such as: settlement schemes of early 1960s, villagization programme of mid 1970s, provision and expansion of free social services (health, education and safe water), literacy campaigns, provision of family planning services as part of MCH services, limiting employment-related benefits (such as tax relief) to four children, and paid maternity leave of 84 days at most once in every three years, and census taking place after every ten years. As the economic crisis became severe during the 1980s, the gains achieved earlier, especially in social sectors could not be maintained.
The impacts of population policy to the country
The adoption of the National Population Policy in 1992 resulted in resettlement of the population in Tanzania. Villages became more or less nucleated or near nucleated in form. This prompted the government to serve the people in a new version with education and healthcare. A down-top administration system was adopted, whereby development projects are suggested and managed by people at the grassroots.
Social services such as water supply, education and healthcare expanded and reached a greater number of Tanzanians. Preliminary programmes on family planning and MCH services were adopted. The employment-related benefits such as paid maternity leave of 84 days once in three years was implemented. The census taking place after every 10 years is another good effect of NPP.
  1. Considerable awareness of population issues particularly those related to reproductive health and child survival by the masses of the people. For example, fertility, infant and child mortality has declined overtime.
  2. The adopted population policy recognizes the links and interrelationships between population, resources, the environment, and development.
  3. Expansion and/or introduction of population studies in institutions of higher learning in the country.
  4. Increased number and capacity of NGOs engaged in population related activities including advocacy and social mobilization, service delivery and capacity building.
  5. High knowledge and the use of contraceptive methods among both men and women and male involvement in family planning. This has seen a marked increase in use various contraceptive methods such as injectable contraceptives, oral contraceptives, condom, IUD (intra-uterine device), vasectomy, and tubal ligation.
Tanzania is not the only country which has adopted a population policy. Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and launched its first national population policy in 1988. In the 1950's, China was overpopulated and in 1952 it became the first country to introduce a population policy.
Nigeria population policy and strategies for family planning
Nigeria launched its first population policy in 1988. The policy intended to improve the population's standard of living and quality of life. Major areas of the policy include the following:
  1. Reduction of fertility rate of 6 or above children per family to 4.
  2. An optimum marriage age of 18 for women and 24 years for men.
  3. Advocating the restriction of pregnancies from 18 to 35 years of age.
  4. Extending the coverage of family planning services.
The policy resulted in a population growth rate of 3% by 2003. Then the government adopted another family planning policy in 2004 which aimed at reducing population growth rate to 2%. Components of the population program include the provision of family planning services to all those who want them and the strengthening of maternal and child health services.
China population policy and strategies for family planning
In 1950s, china had a philosophy of “A large population gives a strong nation.” This philosophy led to high birth rate and fast population change.
Previous Chinese governments had encouraged people to have a lot of children to increase the country's workforce. But by 1970s the government realised that current rates of population growth would soon become unsustainable. Hence, the Chinese government introduced a number of measures to curb population growth and promote economic development. The most important of the new measures was a one-child policy, which decreed that couples in China could only have one child.
The one-child policy
The one-child policy, a part of the family planning policy, was a population planning policy of China. It was introduced in 1979 and began to be formally phased out in 2015. The policy allowed exceptions for many groups, including ethnic minorities. The result was dramatic. Fertility rates dropped from 5.9 births per woman in 1970 to about 1.6 in the late 1990s.
The one-child policy was revised over the years to allow more couples to have an additional child, until the government allowed all married couples to have two children beginning 2016, mainly to combat shrinking workforce and rapidly ageing population.
In 2007, 36% of China's population was subject to a strict one-child restriction, with an additional 53% being allowed to have a second child if the first child was a girl.
Benefits of the policy included increased access to education for all, plus childcare and healthcare offered to families that followed this rule.

Fig 3.6 A Chinese couple and their only son
Problems with enforcing the policy
  1. Those couples who had more than one child didn't receive these benefits and were fined. Provincial governments imposed fines for violations, and the local and national governments created commissions to raise awareness and carry out registration and inspection work.
  2. The policy was keenly resisted in rural areas, where it was traditional to have large families. In urban areas, the policy has been enforced strictly but remote rural areas have been harder to control.
  3. Many people claim that some women, who became pregnant after they had already had a child, were forced to have an abortion and many women were forcibly sterilised.
  4. When couples intended to marry, they were required to apply for permission from the state. The same case applied when they wished to have a child. Family planning officers visited homes and workplaces to ensure that families followed the rules.
Impact of the policy
One of the positive impacts of the one-child policy is that the birth rate in China has fallen since 1979, and the rate of population growth is now 0.7%.
There have been negative impacts too, due to a traditional preference for boys. Large numbers of female babies have ended up homeless or in orphanages, and in some cases killed. In 2000, it was reported that 90 per cent of foetuses aborted in China were female.
As a result, the gender balance of the Chinese population has become distorted. Today it is thought that men outnumber women by more than 60 million. On current trends, there will be more than 30 million “unmarriageable” men in China by 2020.
Long-term implications
China's one-child policy has been somewhat relaxed in recent years. Couples can now apply to have a second child if their first child is a girl, or if both parents are themselves only-children. While China's population is now rising more slowly, it still has a very large total population (1.3 billion in 2008) and China faces new problems, including:
  1. the falling birth rate - leading to a rise in the relative number of elderly people; and
  2. fewer people of working age to support the growing number of elderly dependants, which means in the future China could have an ageing population.
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